Wednesday, Nov 22, 2023

Binance again, the Fed pivot, a German budget freeze, housing, bond volatility

“I would maintain that thanks are the highest form of thought; and that gratitude is happiness doubled by wonder.” – G. K. Chesterton  ||

Hello everyone! Well, the surprises just keep coming…

You’re reading the daily premium Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, where I look at the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. There’s also usually some market commentary, but NOTHING I say is investment advice. For full disclosure, I have held the same long positions in BTC and ETH for years, and have no intention to either buy more or sell in the near future.

If you’re not a subscriber, I do hope you’ll consider becoming one! It would help enable me to continue to share what I learn as I work on figuring out where we’re going. It’s only $8/month for now ($12/month as of January), with a free trial.

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I was on the Real Vision podcast yesterday where we discussed both the options available to the Federal Reserve, and the likely impact of the recent regulatory moves against crypto – here’s the video link.

Also, I’m now host of the CoinDesk Markets Daily podcast – you can check that out here.

Programming note: this newsletter will be taking a break from tomorrow until Sunday, November 26. Back on Monday!

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In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I want to let you all know how much I truly appreciate your being on this journey with me!! Thank you so much for reading, and ESPECIALLY thank you to all my paid subscribers – your support allows me to continue to explore what I feel really matters, and I am VERY grateful for the opportunity! ❤❤

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Binance clears the air

• How long can the Fed stay on hold?

• What the German budget freeze says about government choices

• Home purchase cancellations

• Bond volatility now exceeds that of gold

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Binance clears the air

After Bloomberg reported on Monday that the US Department of Justice (DoJ) was seeking a $4 billion settlement from Binance for money laundering and other infractions, yesterday we got confirmation.

Why it matters:

Binance will pay a $4.3 billion fine and plead guilty. This is not a surprise.

What is a surprise is that CEO and founder CZ will pay a $50 million fine, resign from the company… and plead guilty. He could have agreed to step down from his post for the good of the company, and then lain low in a non-extradition treaty (such as the UAE, where he now lives). But no, he is choosing to do his time so that Binance can continue to execute its growth strategy with a cleaner image. CZ will retain majority ownership of the exchange, which will be allowed to continue operations.

Richard Teng takes over as CEO. He brings serious regulatory chops to the table, as he previously headed up the Financial Services Regulatory Authority at Abu Dhabi Global Market, was chief regulatory officer of the Singapore Exchange (SGX) and spent 13 years with the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Ever since he arrived at Binance just over two years ago, he has been the grown-up at the table.