Wednesday, Sept 4, 2024

September, Argentina, quiet quitting

"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." – Mark Twain ||

Hello everyone! I hope you’re all doing well despite yesterday’s markets, and that you have some grass to touch or flowers to look at or sky to appreciate.

Below I look at why September is typically so bad for markets, and how yesterday’s drop had some glimmers of encouragement.

I also dive into the crazy story of Argentina’s new currency, and what it could mean for our understanding of money.

You’re reading the premium daily Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, in which I look at the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. If you’re not a subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one?

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Ugh, September

• A silver lining?

• Argentina’s new currency

• Crypto’s quiet quitting

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Ugh, September

Sure, maybe it’s coincidence, but yesterday’s market moves drive home just how bad September tends to be for markets.

For the history buffs out there:

• September 2019 – the US repo rate spiked amid a bout of intense and uncharacteristic treasury market volatility, requiring Fed intervention.

• September 2008 – Lehman Brothers collapsed.

• September 2001 – the US suffered its largest attack ever, as hijacked planes flew into the Twin Towers and the Pentagon.

• September 1997 – the Asian Financial Crisis reached its peak, with stock market crashes and devaluations in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea.

• September 1992 – the UK was forced to withdraw the pound from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.

Plus, September is also a US corporate tax deadline, and the end of the US fiscal year, which typically involves some portfolio and FX position adjustments.

No wonder then, that September has been the worst-performing month for the S&P 500 since the 1950s. Over the past five years, its average performance is a negative 4.2%.