What de Tocqueville had to say about crypto
plus: what's ahead this week, market relief and more
“Man is a credulous animal, and must believe something; in the absence of good grounds for belief, he will be satisfied with bad ones.” – Bertrand Russell ||
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📽 “Press Publish” is back! On Friday, June 19th, come join me for a live chat with Izabella Kaminska, author of The Peg and The Blind Spot, about newslettering, media, too much information and more. More details below! 📽
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IN THIS NEWSLETTER
Coming up this week: central banks, geopolitics
Monday mood: What de Tocqueville had to say about crypto
Markets: could it be real this time?
Crypto is Macro Now offers ~daily commentary and updates on the overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. Plus links and more.
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✨Press Publish with Izabella Kaminska✨
Come and join me and long-time journalist, finance expert and independent thinker Izabella Kaminska on Friday June 19th, at 3pm UK time/10am ET for a live chat about why and how she does what she does: how she manages to produce not one but two excellent newsletters (The Peg and The Blind Spot) while also writing for mainstream media, speaking at events, and juggling a ton of other stuff besides. We’ll touch on her long media career, where she thinks the industry is heading, how she handles the firehose of information, what works for her and what doesn’t, what advice she’d give her younger self, and more.
Again, Friday June 19th, at 3pm UK time/10am ET: https://open.substack.com/live-stream/239917?utm_source=live-stream-scheduled-upsell
WHAT I’M WATCHING:
Coming up this week:
It’s central bank week! More than 20 central banks accounting for more than 40% of global output will hold rate setting meetings this week – only Japan is expected to hike, and we could get cuts from Russia and Brazil, but coming so soon on the heels of last week’s ECB rate increase, the momentum is for now to the upside.
Today sees the kickoff of the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, on the French shore of Lake Geneva, where for the next three days developed economy leaders – including President Trump, fresh from his birthday celebrations – will debate global imbalances. As usual, the G7 (US, Japan, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Italy and the EU) has invited other countries to attend the talks: apparently, the leaders of India, Brazil, South Korea, UAE, Egypt, Qatar, Syria (!?), Kenya and, notably, Ukraine will also be present. Saudi Arabia was invited but will not be attending.
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan holds its rate-setting meeting, widely expected to deliver a hike – although Governor Kazuo Ueda is in hospital, so it’s not clear how much meaning we’ll be able to read into the official statement.
Also on Tuesday, we get a deck of economic data from China, including retail sales (expected to be flat), industrial production (the consensus forecast is for a modest uptick) and unemployment (expected to hold steady at 5.2%).
And we get the US import and export price indices which take on even more significance than usual given the current focus on inflation.
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hosts his first press conference in his new role. It will probably end up being one of the most viewed ever, as not only are we eager to compare his engagement style with that of his predecessor, we really want to gauge his tone on the interest rate outlook: can he keep President Trump happy while retaining credibility?
We also get the updated economic projections from the Fed, which shares the committee’s expectations of interest rates going forward as well as inflation, unemployment and GDP growth. Chair Warsh has said that he would like to see less of this guesswork, so this vibe-setting tool may soon be withdrawn. I’m guessing the committee members themselves wouldn’t mind.
Also on Wednesday: US retail sales growth, expected to hold steady at 0.5% month-on-month.
And the two-day Lujiazui Forum kicks off in Shanghai – this is China’s most influential financial conference organized by the country’s main financial regulators and the Shanghai municipal government. The opening speech will be delivered by Ding Xiangqun, minister of the National Financial Regulatory Administration. Also attending this year are representatives from the central banks of Singapore and Hungary (interesting…) as well as financial regulators from the UK and elsewhere. The agenda reportedly includes sessions on cross-border financial regulatory cooperation, and new technologies.
This sure is the week for high-level get-togethers – also on Wednesday, the two-day Russian-ASEAN Commemorative Summit gets going in Kazan, Russia. According to reports, attendance is expected from Vladimir Putin as well as the leaders of the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei and probably some others not yet listed.
Thursday brings a key UK by-election in the district of Makerfield, where Manchester’s mayor Andy Burnham is hoping to win a Parliament seat so he can challenge Keir Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party.
On Friday, all attention will be on Geneva, Switzerland, as delegations from the US (led by Vice President Vance) and Iran (led by Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf) meet to hopefully sign the agreement to start peace negotiations.
US markets are closed for the Juneteenth holiday, and China-Hong Kong are closed for the Dragon Boat Festival.
Monday mood: What De Tocqueville had to say about crypto
(what’s on my mind as we head into the week)
Over the weekend, I started listening to a new podcast series from The Economist, on Alexis de Tocqueville’s mighty tome “Democracy in America” and on how America is faring on the criteria that back then – according to the French aristocrat commenter – made it great.
Back then, Andrew Jackson was president, and de Tocqueville fretted that the man’s abrasive personality and aggressive disregard for diplomatic norms would hurt America’s standing in the world. The parallels with today of course write themselves and, well, America survived. But I’m not going to follow the publication’s chief editor for the Americas down the path of wondering whether this time is different – rather, I want to draw on the magic that de Tocqueville saw in what at the time was still a new continent.
You’ll see where I’m heading with this in a second.
