What does GPS jamming have to do with gold?

plus: why the origin of gold purchases matters, flailing France, what's ahead this week, and more

“The hardest thing to learn in life is which bridge to cross and which to burn.” – Bertrand Russell ||

Hello all, and welcome to September! This year sure is flying by – I mean, I know they all do, but this one especially.

A long one today, and still so much pushed until tomorrow.

Programming note: I know I’ve already missed one day this week, but I have to miss another one on Friday, and won’t be publishing the free weekly on Saturday – back to normal schedule next week!

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Coming up: jobs, manufacturing activity, a military parade and more

• What does GPS jamming have to do with gold?

• Why the origin of gold purchases matters

• A flailing France prepares for defeat

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up this week:

The big deal this week is the US official jobs report on Friday, the last before the FOMC meets to decide on US interest rates – expectations are still solidly pointing to a cut.

On Tuesday, we get US reads on manufacturing activity from both S&P Global and the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), with some improvement expected.

Wednesday brings the first of the week’s US jobs data, with the JOLTS job openings report – the consensus forecast is for a drop in the number of postings.

We also get the Fed’s Beige Book, which will give regional anecdotes about economic activity.

And, China shows off its military prowess at its first Victory Day parade in 10 years. (I wrote about this last week, see here for more detail – it should be quite the spectacle, and it could impact markets.)

On Thursday, we get the Challenger job cuts report, and the private ADP nonfarm payrolls report – this is expected to show a notable slowdown in the number of new jobs added in August to 71,000 from 104,000 in July.

We also get US services sector activity indicators, with the ISM report expected to show some improvement and the S&P Global report expected to hold steady.

The big macro day is on Friday, when we get the official Bureau of Labor Statistics report on US job creation in August. This will be the first report since the former BLS chief was fired after last month’s report showed steep revisions to data from previous releases. It’s not expected to be a great mood lifter, however: the average forecast for jobs added is around 74,000, vs 73,000 in July. This would make the first four-month stretch of monthly new jobs below 100,000 since early 2020.

(chart via Bloomberg)

What does GPS jamming have to do with gold?

Russia’s GPS jamming of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s plane yesterday is significant beyond the headline drama.

It’s not so much the confirmation that Russia can do this, we’ve known that for ages. What’s especially interesting here is the timing and the target. Usually, GPS jamming – not uncommon around conflict areas – targets any plane within a defined area. But this time, it seems that von der Leyen’s plane was singled out, as other planes nearby did not have similar issues, according to the Financial Times.

What’s more, it happened as she was on her way to Bulgaria to visit an ammunition factory, as part of a tour of EU countries bordering Russia to gauge military readiness. Coincidence? I think not.

In the end, after about an hour of circling, the plane landed without the aid of electronic navigation, using paper maps and ground radio. But it must have been scary, and we can wonder whether that will influence von der Leyen’s eagerness to commit EU resources to Ukraine’s defence.

Over the weekend (before the jamming incident), she told the Financial Times that Europe had “pretty precise plans” for military deployments to Ukraine, which seems to have been news to EU states. Yesterday, Germany’s defence minister fiercely pushed back, saying: “Those are things that you don't discuss before you sit down at the negotiating table with many parties that have a say in the matter.” Such as countries who would be expected to come up with said troops.