Why $100,000 is a big deal

also, the BTC window of discourse, and tomorrow's data drop

“Our lives teem with numbers, but we sometimes forget that numbers are only tools. They have no soul; they may indeed become fetishes.” – Peter L. Bernstein ||

Hello everyone! I hope you’re all doing well!

Today is a big day, and I may or may not have gotten a bit emotional when I saw this morning that BTC had breached a milestone. Below, I explain why.

I also briefly review some of yesterday’s astonishing public statements that may have influenced sentiment. And I update on why tomorrow’s data drop matters.

My first appearance as co-host on the Bits & Bips podcast, along with Jeff Seyffart and Ram Ahluwalia, is out! This week, we were joined by Galaxy Digital’s Alex Thorn – there were some tech issues, but it was a fiery chat nonetheless. You can see it here, or listen here (Spotify link).

Production note: it’s a public holiday here in Spain tomorrow, so this newsletter will miss publication – I will be publishing the free weekly on Saturday.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Why $100,000 is a big deal

• The BTC window of discourse

• Tomorrow’s data drop

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as audio, relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Why $100,000 is a big deal

It happened!!!!

Regular readers will know that I never use exclamation marks for prices, because to be honest I don’t care much about levels – it’s the narratives I find interesting.

But BTC passing $100,000 is a big, fat, round exception.

For those of us who have been here a long time, it’s emotional. I bought my first BTC at around $250 (I sold too early in the 2017 run), and so this breach feels like our little baby Bitcoin has gone and grown up. It feels like a graduation, a step into the adult world, with head held high.

All of us who have consistently and persistently wanted Bitcoin to do well should be feeling a well-earned validation today.

There’s more than a smidgen of pride: everyone working in crypto in some way helped it get there. Bitcoin has no executive leader and no marketing team other than all of us. And so if you see old-time Bitcoiners congratulating each other on social media today, we’re not being smug – it’s that there’s no-one else to congratulate.

There’s also the overwhelming awe at the force of an idea. No other intangible asset, anywhere, ever, has experienced this kind of growth without a management entity behind it. You can point to BlackRock or Powell or Putin or whoever, and claim they made this happen, but they didn’t. The market did.

Going forward, BTC will rise, and it will fall, and it will continue to do so as long as “forever” has meaning. Because no one entity can decide otherwise.

But today is a landmark we will never forget. Today feels like the beginning of something new. Even if BTC goes back below $100,000 at some point in the near or even distant future, it is now breathing rarefied air.

Like other hard-won successes, this will soon become comfortable, and eyes are already on adding another zero to this morning’s benchmark figure. But for now, at this moment in time, we have to take a moment to realize what an achievement this is.

(chart via TradingView)

See also:

• The $100,000 wall

The BTC window of discourse

That said, several things happened yesterday that may have had some influence in the sentiment boost:

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke favourably of Bitcoin. You read that right. The head of the US central bank, on stage at the Dealbook conference, likened Bitcoin to gold and emphasized that it was not a competitor to the US dollar. This will have some impact on remaining regulatory resistance in Washington DC (there is still some).

• Russian president Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Bitcoin can’t be banned. This is notable, coming from someone who has form in banning things he is worried about. Speaking at an investment conference, he also stressed that the US weaponization of the dollar was encouraging states to turn to other assets for diversification, including cryptocurrencies. How long before we hear an official announcement that Russia is holding crypto as part of its reserves, I wonder. (China, over to you…)

• President Elect Donald Trump has nominated Paul Atkins to replace Gary Gensler as head of the SEC. I haven’t had time yet to dive into Atkins’ statements on crypto, but SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce vouches for him, and since she is probably the most thoughtful official in office when it comes to the potential for financial innovation, that’s good enough for me.

• Hedge fund Citadel founder Ken Griffin, who back in 2018 criticized crypto for distracting investment from shares which can drive economic growth, and who likened Bitcoin to tulips when it was at $10,000, said the following:

“You have to remember an intangible asset like this is valued on intangible aspects. It’s about community. It’s about standing opposed to the power of the state. People take joy in that. The American people want agency of their money, and crypto is part of that.”

The term “Overton window” refers to the range of ideas that can be reasonably discussed in public, that mainstream officials and the general public are ready to entertain. It is also known as the “window of discourse”, and I think we can say with certainty that, for Bitcoin, it is now wide open.

See also:

• Bitcoin and tulips

Tomorrow’s data drop

Since I won’t be publishing tomorrow (a public holiday where I live, to honour our Constitution and coincidentally traditionally the day when Christmas trees get put up🎄), it’s worth looking at what we could see in the employment data, and what impact that might have on markets.