Why Germany’s election matters

it's about much more than Germany

“Seek simplicity, and distrust it.” – Alfred North Whitehead ||

Hi everyone, and happy Friday!

Apologies for publishing late again. The past couple of days have been complicated, but senior pup is doing much better now – I’m looking forward to getting back on schedule next week, and the backlog of topics I want to get to is growing.

Today, I have to look at Germany, which is heading into elections on Sunday that could deliver some weekend fireworks. Even if not, the significance of recent voting trends extends well beyond Europe.

Here are the links to this week’s Bits & Bips episode, with myself, Jeff Seyffart, Joe McCann and Ram Ahluwalia (should have shared yesterday, sorry!) – you can hear it here (Spotify link) or watch it here.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Why Germany’s election matters

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Why Germany’s election matters

On Sunday, Germany goes to the polls in what could be one of the most consequential elections of 2025.

The elections were called in December after the chaotic collapse of the first three-party coalition government since the 1950s, when Chancellor Scholz lost a no-confidence vote after firing then-Finance Minister Christian Lindner. Essentially, Germany has been without a strong government at a particularly volatile time, given the widening rift between Europe and the US, a shrinking economy, the looming threat of tariffs and too many brutal domestic attacks. Deepening frustration is now the baseline.

As things stand, the Christian Democrat (CDU) party led by Friedrich Merz is expected to win but without a majority. The ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) party is expected to come in third for the first time since the creation of the Bundestag in 1949. The wild card is the nationalist AfD party, labelled “far right” by the media, whose climbing popularity represents the growing discontent with the current system. Sound familiar?

For now, polls have the AfD coming in second, with 22% of the vote.