Assault on the Fed: smokescreen or scapegoat?

plus, what's ahead for the week, where we're at with tariffs, and more!

“But the nature of the universe is such that the ends never justify the means. On the contrary, the means always determine the end.” – Aldous Huxley ||

Hello everyone!!! I hope you’re all doing well, and got to enjoy some fresh air and time with loved ones over the past few days. I had a fantastic break – a lot of walking and cooking and reading. It’s good to be back, though, and wow, things have happened…

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Coming up: IMF, economic activity indices, a round table and a funeral

• Assault on the Fed: smokescreen or scapegoat?

• Macro-Crypto Bits: macro, markets, tariffs and realignment

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up: what to keep an eye on this week

Today, the IMF will publish its latest annual report on global growth. As always, we should take what they forecast and reduce it by a significant factor as they tend to skew optimistic. But also, with so much fundamental uncertainty it’s impossible to know what key economic drivers will even be over the next year, let alone their impact on output. What’s more, the IMF is one of the handful of globalist organizations becoming increasingly irrelevant on the fragmenting stage. But, the report does tend to offer insight into flows of both trade and funds, which help to identify likely pockets of stimulus and capital controls, which in turn influence demand for hard assets.

This release is part of the annual Spring Meeting in Washington DC this week, which coincides with a meeting of the G20 finance chiefs. It’s not out of the question the non-US members will broach the topic of a unified negotiating strategy – but domestic politics dictates that self-interest presides. Things are not yet looking hopeful on this front.

Tomorrow, we get a slew of Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) from Europe and the US. These will be the first glimpse of the impact of Trump’s tariff policy and, unsurprisingly, a weakening is expected across the board.

We also get a glimpse of on-the-ground sentiment in the US with the publication of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which reflects conversations between regional banks and businesses.

And the data for US new home sales will give some insight into the housing sector outlook – high mortgage rates are not good for demand.

Thursday brings US durable goods orders for March, which could continue to show an inventory buildup ahead of the April 2 tariff announcement.

Didn’t Trump say that Ukraine would be signing a minerals deal on Thursday? Credibility on this is thin, though.

On Friday, the University of Michigan publishes its revised consumer survey results for April. Brace for impact. (I wrote last week about why this survey generates much more extreme inflation expectation results than the New York Fed consumer survey.)

Also on Friday, the SEC will hold a round table titled: “Know Your Custodian: Key Considerations for Crypto Custody”. See this page for information on the agenda and the participants, and/or to tune in.

Saturday will see world leaders gather in Rome for the funeral of Pope Francis.

Finally, Congress is on a break this week, with representatives in theory returning to home states and probably getting an earful from constituents about the tariff impact to supply chains and sales.

Assault on the Fed: smokescreen or scapegoat?

As if markets weren’t jittery enough amid a lack of progress on tariff reductions and uncertainty regarding the global economic outlook, President Trump has chosen to also take a pickaxe to the outlook for stable US monetary policy going forward. But there could be more to this than meets the eye.