The macro stage, and the next act

plus, mBridge enters a new phase, and divergent China narratives

“The reason most people fail instead of succeed is they trade what they want most for what they want at the moment.” – Napoleon Bonaparte  ||   

Hello everyone, I hope you’re all doing well! Especially since this is likely to be one of the most stressful weeks of the year, in terms of widespread anxiety. In situations like this, I find it essential to remember that the sun will continue to rise each morning, whatever happens, and we’ll be ok. We’ve repeatedly shown that, collectively, we can get through stuff.

Below, I look at macro signals heading into the US election and this week’s FOMC meeting. It’s long and chart-heavy, but important as the narratives are confusing – I do my best to untangle them for you.

I also update on the latest mBridge news, which matters for cross-border CBDCs and tokenization.

Crypto doesn’t get much of a look-in today, which is a pity since there have been a ton of relevant news items over the past few days that reflect continued progress in its impact on the macro landscape. Tomorrow I should be able to share some of those.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• The macro stage, and the next act

• mBridge update: is sharing possible?

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You’ll get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto is impacting the macro landscape.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

The macro stage, and the next act

F. Scott Fitzgerald once said: “The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.”

While the first-rate intelligence assumption may be a stretch for a Monday morning, the market is reflecting split narratives, which strangely sort of makes sense.