Thursday, Oct 10, 2024

realigning axes, hedge funds, the right to cash

“The future influences the present just as much as the past.” – Friedrich Nietzsche ||

Hi everyone, and happy symmetry day! I know they’re just numbers, but 10/10 has a resounding ring to it.

If any of you reading this are from Florida, or have family/friends there, I hope you’re all safe. It’s hard to appreciate the force of wind and water from pixels on a screen – the reality is much more devastating than most realize, physically and emotionally.

Yesterday, in case you missed it, I wrote about Cambodia’s Bakong project, and how it’s sort of a CBDC but not really – unlike many other central bank-backed crypto projects, this one seems to be popular.

Today, I talk about why the realignment of global influence matters for crypto (and vice versa, admittedly both depressing and uplifting). I also look at a report on hedge fund participation in crypto markets, and at the intensifying focus on cash as a “right”.

Programming note: I’m in London and Edinburgh next week, and so I’ll have to miss a few days of publication – for now, I’m planning to publish on Monday and Wednesday, and will be taking the rest of the week off. Not gonna lie, I could use some time to recharge. Thanks for your understanding! 😊

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Realigning axes

• The hedge funds are back

• The right to cash

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Realigning axes

Unfortunately, it’s not just inflation and currency debasement that matters for bitcoin’s “hedge” narrative. Geopolitical uncertainty is delivering an even more existential threat to people around the world, and the likelihood of losing financial access due to chaos or censorship, or – worse – having to flee with what one can carry, all underscore the utility of a decentralized, digital store of value. When things get sad and desperate, alternatives are good.

This is one of the reasons I am watching with trepidation the battle for influence in the Global South, the region most vulnerable to turmoil and economic shocks. It’s not just the likely human cost, already at heart-breaking levels in so many places. It’s also the potential hit to the broader economic web of supply chains, which can lead to even more political dislocation and violence.

Given the noise of the news flow, it’s easy to lose track of the longer-term strategies in play, especially when both superpower rivals are distracted at home with political uncertainty and polarization on the one hand, and an alarming economic slowdown on the other. But that doesn’t mean new influences aren’t unfolding.