Tuesday, August 27, 2024

FOMO, AI, the First Amendment, and how Durov’s arrest is escalating

“The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence; it is to act with yesterday's logic.” – Peter Drucker

Hello all! A late send today (partly explained in my rant below), ufff, and I’m pushing the stablecoin update until tomorrow so this doesn’t become way too long. It feels like the temperature is changing, and I’m not talking about the end of summer.

You’re reading the premium daily Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, in which I look at the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. If you’re not a subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one?

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

A rant about the changing role of government, extraterritorial aspects of Durov’s arrest, and why my bank needs proof of my meagre income.

Also:

• First Amendment violations

• About those AI earnings

• Don’t fear the FOMO

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

The arrest of Pavel Durov escalates

I wrote about this yesterday, I know, but more information has come to light that highlights just how messy this can get, and how it’s about much more than Telegram, more than censorship, more even than privacy. This case is about jurisdictions, the role of private businesses in society, the value of information, what we expect from our government, and the importance of asking questions.

The multinational Pandora’s box

The detention of Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov is getting weird. The UAE has reached out to the French authorities to request that Durov be granted consular services “in an urgent manner”.

I don’t mean to cast aspersions by implying that the UAE is not exactly up there on the “fair treatment of prisoners” pedestal, to be honest I don’t know enough about its record – but earlier this year, it held a mass trial of over 80 individuals accused of association with what its police call a “clandestine terrorist organization” and the Human Rights Watch calls an “advocacy group”, with an apparent lack of due process, access to information and limited legal assistance.

It gets weirder: Russia is concerned that Durov is being held without justification. We were reminded just a few weeks ago that Russia has no issue with detaining credentialed journalists on unproven accusations of espionage. Now they insist that Durov’s detention needs “a serious basis of evidence”.

There’s a strong possibility the French authorities had (perhaps still have?) no idea how messy this can get. As far as I know, the counter-accusations have not yet started – will Russia accuse France of attempting to spy on Russian military communications via the Telegram app? Will the UAE accuse France of meddling in its economic development by going after one of its largest businesses?