WEEKLY, Dec 30, 2023
top 10 crypto events of 2023, upcoming changes to the newsletter, Christmas movies
“For last year's words belong to last year's language
And next year's words await another voice.” – TS Eliot, Little Gidding
Hi everyone! This is the last Crypto is Macro Now of 2023, and I’d like to take a moment to wish you all an important 2024. May we make progress on things that matter, forget things that don’t, and enjoy ourselves along the way.
You’re reading the free weekly edition of Crypto is Macro Now, where I update and/or re-share a couple of things I wrote in more detail about during the week. If you’re a premium subscriber, you’ve probably already read them, so feel free to scroll all the way down for some non-crypto links.
If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You’ll get a daily update as to the crypto and macro trends that I feel are being overlooked, along with some market commentary. There are also charts, links to interesting podcast episodes and long reads, and a running commentary on some of the craziness out there. Below I detail some upcoming changes to the content and format.
Follow me on X at @noelleinmadrid where I share photos of gorgeous city I live in, charts, comments on headlines, and, you know, stuff depending on the mood.
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Programming note: The premium daily Crypto is Macro Now email will take a break on Monday for New Year’s Day, back in your inboxes on Tuesday!
In this newsletter:
Some upcoming changes for Crypto is Macro Now
Top 10 crypto narrative-moving events of the year
My top three Christmas movies
Some of the topics discussed earlier this week:
Two giant steps toward greater crypto adoption via regulation
India’s crypto move
Layered tokenization for institutions
Web3 hiring
Some upcoming changes for Crypto is Macro Now
So, I have some changes coming up, which I’m excited about. As of next week, I’m stepping back from hosting the CoinDesk Markets Daily podcast. It was fun, and I have nothing but the highest praise for the CoinDesk podcast team. But I want to spend more time focusing on big picture issues and going deeper on some of the trends that could shape the markets and economies of tomorrow. Markets are important, and I will continue covering crypto and macro market trends – just not on a granular, daily basis (unless there are important stories to tell).
Part of my plan involves raising the price of the subscription. I wish I didn’t need to, and I understand that for some of you it might be a hefty cost jump, for which I apologize (given the range of great premium newsletters out there, I know this all adds up). But I hope to make it worth it for you. I’m quadrupling the discount on the annual subscription, so the increase there is less. As of January 7, the premium subscription will be $12/month or $108/year. Current subscriptions won’t be affected until renewal.
In exchange for this rate hike (inside joke), you get:
A daily (Monday-Friday) email with trends, narratives and news items that illustrate where we’re heading, plus some useful links. (I will probably have to miss 2-3 days each month because of reasons.)
Regularly updated snapshots of where we are with tokenization and CBDCs (starting mid-January).
The occasional essay and deep dive (at least one every two weeks, my goal is to get to weekly).
The occasional interview, starting in February.
Also, I’m thinking of adding audio to the premium newsletters, in case you have more listening time than reading time. Would that be helpful?
I’m excited about experimenting with new formats, media and content styles in coming months. If you have any suggestions, please let me know in the comments.
Top 10 crypto narrative-moving events of the year
All years in crypto are eventful, but history will regard 2024 as an inflection point, not just in terms of market moves but also in terms of global regulatory acceptance, institutional adoption and technological development.
For fun, I set myself the task of choosing 10 events from the endless scroll of fascinating moves that I believe highlight some of the key narrative shifts that will drive 2024. There was so much to choose from, and no doubt you’ll disagree with much of my selection and be irritated that I left certain other news items out. Looking back a month from now, I’ll probably join you in that disagreement. But for now, I’ve gone for developments that have changed the conversation in ways we don’t yet fully appreciate.
The debut of Bitcoin Ordinals (Jan 20): The explosion of interest in Bitcoin-based NFTs shook the widespread conviction that Bitcoin was “boring”. It reminded investors and developers that Bitcoin is not just a “speculative asset” and/or a “hard cap store of value” – it is also an evolving technology. This makes it even more likely that Bitcoin miners will be able to thrive on just fees as successive halvings reduce new BTC rewards.
US banking crisis (Mar 10): The collapse in March of three large US commercial banks sent two strong crypto-related messages. One was the vulnerability of crypto to the US banking system – two of the affected banks were key participants in the crypto ecosystem, by servicing crypto businesses and by providing transaction liquidity. Their closure depegged what was widely regarded as the “safest” stablecoin USDC, and caused operational bottlenecks in many crypto businesses. The other message was embedded in the BTC price, which soared more than 30% over the following week. This showed that bitcoin is increasingly seen as an antidote to systemic fragility.
Ethereum’s Shapella upgrade (Apr 13): This upgrade enabled staking withdrawals, which led to a surge of interest in Ethereum staking and set the stage for Ethereum to possibly become the crypto ecosystem’s savings account.
The BlackRock spot BTC ETF filing (June 15): This was arguably the strongest signal so far that, for tradfi, bitcoin is a worthwhile diversifier asset. What’s more, the move by the world’s largest ETF issuer, one with strong regulatory connections, sent a loud signal to investors as well as other issuers that, this time, there was a good chance of approval. (I could also put the BlackRock spot ETH ETF filing in here as well, Nov 16, since that sent a signal that the fund manager is seeing interest in assets beyond bitcoin.)
Japan’s web3 support (July 25): In July, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida addressed attendees of a Tokyo web3 conference via video and promised official support for the development of web3-related services. You don’t get a stronger signal of official interest than that. This is the same jurisdiction that was one of the first to enact comprehensive stablecoin legislation, that traditional banks are already testing.
Launch of Base (Aug 9): In August, Coinbase announced the public launch of its Ethereum-based layer-2 blockchain Base, with a broad range of apps already deployed. The big deal here is the emergence of a complex app network with exchange services at its center, and the blurring of boundaries between trading and other web3 activities.
Grayscale’s court win (Aug 29): The August ruling from the DC Circuit court that the SEC had acted in an “arbitrary and capricious” manner in denying Grayscale’s proposal to convert its GBTC trust into an ETF marked a turning point in ETF expectations. It also showed that the courts don’t much like the SEC, which gave the industry a validating boost in its determination to withstand the inconsistent approach from the US securities regulator.
SBF conviction (Nov 2): This marked not only the end of the media’s obsession with the story (hopefully!! please!!!), but also a needed reminder that the FTX disaster was a fraud story more than a crypto story. Time to start closing that particular chapter.
SocGen’s stablecoin (Dec 6): In early December, Société Générale announced the launch of a tradeable deposit-backed euro stablecoin. Bank stablecoins are not new, but those tradeable on crypto platforms are. It’s not as free as it may at first seem – users have to be approved by SocGen before being able to buy and use the asset. The same goes for apps that want to be able to accept it. But I’m intrigued by the potential support for institutional blockchain-based trading in the EU, and the ecosystem of apps built by crypto natives as well as legacy finance that could emerge as a result.
The Powell Pivot (Dec 13): While financial conditions had been easing anyway, the shift in the tone of the Fed Chair’s comments after the last FOMC meeting sort of put a bow on the idea that monetary easing is as good as back. This is good for pretty much all risk assets, especially those such as bitcoin that are purely narrative-driven.
(chart via TradingView)
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!
Ok, it’s time (past time, really) to talk about best Christmas movies. Here are my top three:
The first has to be “The Muppet Christmas Carol”. With Michael Caine as a gloriously grumpy Scrooge, Kermit the Frog showing unexpected emotional depth and Miss Piggy playing a likeable diva-housewife, you almost have the star power overshadowing the excellent script. And the songs… the songs…
Then, there’s the adorable rom-com “The Holiday”, with Jack Black, Kate Winslet, Cameron Diaz, Jude Law and Rufus Sewell. It’s more than eye-candy, the characters are the likeable side of believable, and the script is warm and sparkly. While the premise may be a bit far-fetched, it’s a feel-good Christmas movie so who wants realism?
And finally, a new entrant at number three, a movie I watched last night: Klaus. Breathtaking animation, strong character development, and such a moving story that I bawled my eyes out (and it wasn’t even sad!).