Thanks. You write that “the US is being outspent by geopolitical rivals”. Doesn’t sound right, maybe in small, specific corners of the world, but not globally.
Hi CryptoDragon! You raise a good point. The official disclosures from China put its defense spending at less than 30% of that of the US – but the Stockholm International Peace Institute pegs it at around 40%, and a couple of US senators insist it is more like 80% (although you could argue they might have a vested interest in amplifying the threat).
Whatever the actual figure is (the details are not very transparent), we do know the following:
1) the official reports from China don’t include R&D (this is paid for by other departments, or commercial companies) whereas R&D is around 16% of the US budget (according to a report out last week by RealClearDefense);
2) nor do they include paramilitary forces, the militarized coast guard or foreign weapons purchases (eg. from Russia) whereas the US budget does;
3) $100 billion (to pick a number) buys a lot more hardware in China than in the US;
4) Chinese military salaries are 5%-25% those of the US (according to a 2021 report by The Economist);
5) and on top of that, personnel expenditure accounts for around 65% of the US defense budget (2024 est. data), and less than 30% of the Chinese budget;
6) finally, there’s the available building infrastructure: China has roughly 40% of global shipbuilding capacity, the US has around 0.13% (according to a report published this week by the US Naval Institute).
So, in absolute numbers, the US outspends, easily (unless you believe the US senators, in which case not so much). But the Chinese spending on actual hardware and R&D is likely to be greater, as well as more focused – China’s theatre of operations is much, much smaller than that of the US, at least for now.
Many thanks for really comprehensive response. To me personally, it sounds like way too much weapon spending sadly. We could do much more important things in this world.
As President John F. Kennedy said, "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed".
YES, beautiful and yet tragic words... Unfortunately, the rationale is that defense spending boosts economic activity, which is a strong incentive when economies are weak, and even more so when it can be justified by the supremacy/survival ethic... I read this morning that the Russian economy grew 3.6% in 2023, largely due to military spending, which shows how ineffectual sanctions can be when economies can be boosted by fiscal spending.
This is part of what I worry about, that all countries that *can* will be boosting defense spending, given the perceived lack of protection from the US and the growing geopolitical tension. And to pay for this, they'll be printing money, which is also theft.
And don't get me started on what an unproductive use of fiscal bandwidth the vast amount of interest due on US government debt is... At least defense spending puts something back into the economy. Not as productive as investing in people, in my opinion... but better than just servicing ballooning debt.
I am a proponent of a paradigm shift, away from GDP and endless growth of materialistic things, towards a wellbeing economy. For inspiration see https://weall.org/
Thanks. You write that “the US is being outspent by geopolitical rivals”. Doesn’t sound right, maybe in small, specific corners of the world, but not globally.
US has been - by big margin - the biggest military spender according to sources I could find, some mentioned here: https://www.perplexity.ai/search/aaae1551-1083-415a-a542-0da7888bcb71
Hi CryptoDragon! You raise a good point. The official disclosures from China put its defense spending at less than 30% of that of the US – but the Stockholm International Peace Institute pegs it at around 40%, and a couple of US senators insist it is more like 80% (although you could argue they might have a vested interest in amplifying the threat).
Whatever the actual figure is (the details are not very transparent), we do know the following:
1) the official reports from China don’t include R&D (this is paid for by other departments, or commercial companies) whereas R&D is around 16% of the US budget (according to a report out last week by RealClearDefense);
2) nor do they include paramilitary forces, the militarized coast guard or foreign weapons purchases (eg. from Russia) whereas the US budget does;
3) $100 billion (to pick a number) buys a lot more hardware in China than in the US;
4) Chinese military salaries are 5%-25% those of the US (according to a 2021 report by The Economist);
5) and on top of that, personnel expenditure accounts for around 65% of the US defense budget (2024 est. data), and less than 30% of the Chinese budget;
6) finally, there’s the available building infrastructure: China has roughly 40% of global shipbuilding capacity, the US has around 0.13% (according to a report published this week by the US Naval Institute).
So, in absolute numbers, the US outspends, easily (unless you believe the US senators, in which case not so much). But the Chinese spending on actual hardware and R&D is likely to be greater, as well as more focused – China’s theatre of operations is much, much smaller than that of the US, at least for now.
Many thanks for really comprehensive response. To me personally, it sounds like way too much weapon spending sadly. We could do much more important things in this world.
As President John F. Kennedy said, "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed".
YES, beautiful and yet tragic words... Unfortunately, the rationale is that defense spending boosts economic activity, which is a strong incentive when economies are weak, and even more so when it can be justified by the supremacy/survival ethic... I read this morning that the Russian economy grew 3.6% in 2023, largely due to military spending, which shows how ineffectual sanctions can be when economies can be boosted by fiscal spending.
This is part of what I worry about, that all countries that *can* will be boosting defense spending, given the perceived lack of protection from the US and the growing geopolitical tension. And to pay for this, they'll be printing money, which is also theft.
And don't get me started on what an unproductive use of fiscal bandwidth the vast amount of interest due on US government debt is... At least defense spending puts something back into the economy. Not as productive as investing in people, in my opinion... but better than just servicing ballooning debt.
I am a proponent of a paradigm shift, away from GDP and endless growth of materialistic things, towards a wellbeing economy. For inspiration see https://weall.org/