Hi everyone! You’re reading the weekly Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, where I look at the crypto market and its growing overlap with the macro landscape. I’m Noelle, and I’ve been writing crypto-focused newsletters for over six years now, first for CoinDesk and more recently for Genesis Trading. Now that I’m concentrating on independent research (the theme is in the title), it felt natural to continue. If you find this useful, please consider sharing with friends and colleagues.
you raise a really interesting point there, one I need to think more about (the effect of Japan and China on global liquidity) - I think you're right, Japan selling Treasuries to manage the yield curve is positive for market liquidity, and China could do the same... and it _might_ be enough to start moving the needle... hmm... want to look into how much of a needle move that might be... and also how adding more Treasuries into a market with fewer buyers might exacerbate Treasury liquidity stress (if the value of Treasuries drops because more sellers than buyers then that could trigger collateral issues)... interesting, thanks for raising... on the next leg down for crypto, there may be one (new sell pressure from miners and/or large holders perhaps?) but the bottom is either really close or already behind us... that said, a surge in the dollar would be bad for crypto, so a relevant question is how much more it can go up without triggering the break that will flood the market with liquidity
If...Treasury initiates buy back program funded by bill issuance & equity markets view it as form of QE & rally as result...the Fed will have succeeded in raising rates 4% without a meltdown in Stock market...something very few thought even remotely possible
Totally agree with you as well
I’m just wondering if Crypto will have a lower leg from here along with equities and real estate crash — what do you think?
Just want to save dry powder for better final entries before the turning in Global Liquidity— which might have already started with Japan (and China?)
Yes we have rallied off the lows along with S&P etc
What will happen to us in the deflationary bust that follows this (temporary) melt up ??
Interested in your thoughts on this roller coaster-- not sure Fed will be pivot friendly at all next week into Midterms ...
you raise a really interesting point there, one I need to think more about (the effect of Japan and China on global liquidity) - I think you're right, Japan selling Treasuries to manage the yield curve is positive for market liquidity, and China could do the same... and it _might_ be enough to start moving the needle... hmm... want to look into how much of a needle move that might be... and also how adding more Treasuries into a market with fewer buyers might exacerbate Treasury liquidity stress (if the value of Treasuries drops because more sellers than buyers then that could trigger collateral issues)... interesting, thanks for raising... on the next leg down for crypto, there may be one (new sell pressure from miners and/or large holders perhaps?) but the bottom is either really close or already behind us... that said, a surge in the dollar would be bad for crypto, so a relevant question is how much more it can go up without triggering the break that will flood the market with liquidity
If...Treasury initiates buy back program funded by bill issuance & equity markets view it as form of QE & rally as result...the Fed will have succeeded in raising rates 4% without a meltdown in Stock market...something very few thought even remotely possible
https://twitter.com/fedguy12/status/1587090065594888197?s=46&t=X6V2y8uIWrSHH77OOkH7QA
https://twitter.com/fedguy12/status/1587090065594888197?s=46&t=X6V2y8uIWrSHH77OOkH7QA