7 Comments

Totally agree with you as well

I’m just wondering if Crypto will have a lower leg from here along with equities and real estate crash — what do you think?

Just want to save dry powder for better final entries before the turning in Global Liquidity— which might have already started with Japan (and China?)

Expand full comment

Yes we have rallied off the lows along with S&P etc

What will happen to us in the deflationary bust that follows this (temporary) melt up ??

Interested in your thoughts on this roller coaster-- not sure Fed will be pivot friendly at all next week into Midterms ...

Expand full comment

totally agree that the Fed isn't pivoting any time soon - we'll see a slowdown first but that's not a pivot, and may not come until next Spring (although possibly in December if the data is dire before then) - and I'm not sure we'll have a deflationary bust, I think this inflation is structural and here to stay for years - but the time a new set of deflationary forces kick in, we'll be back to higher liquidity and a technology-driven boost to productivity anyway, but first there are global crises of energy and food shortages not to mention political polarization to cope with - all of which benefits (in my opinion) crypto more than stocks or bonds

Expand full comment

you raise a really interesting point there, one I need to think more about (the effect of Japan and China on global liquidity) - I think you're right, Japan selling Treasuries to manage the yield curve is positive for market liquidity, and China could do the same... and it _might_ be enough to start moving the needle... hmm... want to look into how much of a needle move that might be... and also how adding more Treasuries into a market with fewer buyers might exacerbate Treasury liquidity stress (if the value of Treasuries drops because more sellers than buyers then that could trigger collateral issues)... interesting, thanks for raising... on the next leg down for crypto, there may be one (new sell pressure from miners and/or large holders perhaps?) but the bottom is either really close or already behind us... that said, a surge in the dollar would be bad for crypto, so a relevant question is how much more it can go up without triggering the break that will flood the market with liquidity

Expand full comment

If...Treasury initiates buy back program funded by bill issuance & equity markets view it as form of QE & rally as result...the Fed will have succeeded in raising rates 4% without a meltdown in Stock market...something very few thought even remotely possible

Expand full comment